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농촌 그린빌리지 계획을 위한 일별 풍력발전량의 적정확률분포형 추정

Estimation of the optimal probability distribution for daily electricity generation by wind power in rural green-village planning

  • 김대식 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부) ;
  • 구승모 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 농업경제학과) ;
  • 남상운 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 생물자원공학부)
  • 발행 : 2008.11.30

초록

This study aims to estimate the optimal probability distribution of daily electricity generation by wind power, in order to contribute in rural green-village planning. Wind power generation is now being recognized as one of the most popular sources for renewable resources over the country. Although it is also being adapted to rural area for may reasons, it is important to estimate the magnitudes of power outputs with reliable statistical methodologies while applying historical daily wind data, for correct feasibility analysis. In this study, one of the well-known statistical methodology is employed to define the appropriate statistical distributions for monthly power outputs for specific rural areas. The results imply that the assumption of normal distributions for many cases may lead to incorrect decision-making and therefore lead to the unreliable feasibility analysis. Subjective methodology for testing goodness of fit for normal distributions on all the cases in this study, provides possibilities to consider the other various types of statistical distributions for more precise feasibility analysis.

키워드

참고문헌

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