Development of Rating Curves Using a Maximum Likelihood Model

최우도 모형을 이용한 수위-유량곡선식 개발

  • Kim, Gyeong-Hoon (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Park, Jun-Il (Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Shin, Chan-Ki (Nakdong River Environment Research Center National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 김경훈 (국립경상대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 박준일 (국립경상대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 신찬기 (국립환경과학원 낙동강물환경연구소)
  • Published : 2008.12.31

Abstract

The non-linear least squares model(NLSM) has long been the standard technique used by hydrologists for constructing rating curves. The reasons for its adaptation are vague, and its appropriateness as a method of describing discharge measurement uncertainty has not been well investigated. It is shown in this paper that the classical method of NLSM can model only a very limited class of variance heterogeneity. Furthermore, this lack of flexibility often leads to unaccounted heteroscedasticity, resulting in dubious values for the rating curve parameters and estimated discharge. By introducing a heteroscedastic maximum likelihood model(HMLM), the variance heterogeneity is treated more generally. The maximum likelihood model stabilises the variance better than the NLSM approach, and thus is a more robust and appropriate way to fit a rating curve to a set of discharge measurements.

Keywords

References

  1. 김원, 윤광석 등. 하천유량측정지침, 수자원의 지속적 확보기술개발사업단 기술보고서(TR 2004-01), pp. 73-82, 2004
  2. 건교부 수자원국 하천관리과 수문조사 선진화 5개년 계획(하천관리과-1147, 2005. 6. 1), 2005
  3. 건교부 수자원관리기법 개발연구조사 보고서, 1994
  4. 건설교통부 수문조사연보, 수위편, 유량편, 2004
  5. 김경훈, 김문수 등 낙동강수계 T/M유량과 실측유량의 비교분석, 한국물환경학회. 대한상하수도학회 공동춘계학술발표회 논문집, pp. 629-632, 2005
  6. Lambie, J.C. Measurement of flow-velocity-area methods. In: Herschy, R.W., (Ed.), Hydrometry: Principles and Practices, Wiley, Chichester, Chapter 1, 1978
  7. Ackers, P., White, W.R., Perkins, J.A., Harrison, J.M. Weirs and Flumes for Flow Measurement, Wiley, Chichester, 1978
  8. Gawne, K.D., Simonovic, S.P. A computer based system of modelling the stage-discharge relationships in steady state conditions, Hydrol. Sci. J. 39(5), 487-506, 1994 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669409492770
  9. Yu, B. A systematic over-estimation of flows. J. Hydrol. 233, 258-262, 2000 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00223-7
  10. Asgeir Petersen-Overleir Accounting for heteroscedasticity in rating curve estimates, J. Hydrol. 292, 173-181, 2004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.024
  11. Herschy, R.W. Accuracy. In: Herschy, R.W., (Ed.), Hydrometry: Principles and Practices, Wiley, Chichester, Chapter 10, 1978
  12. ISO Technical Corrigendum 1 to International Standard ISO 1100-2:1998. Prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 113. Hydrometric Determinations, Sub-committee SC 1. Velocity Area Methods, 1998
  13. Clarke, R.T. Uncertainty in the estimation of mean annual flood due to rating curve indefinition, J. Hydrol. 222, 185-190, 1999 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00097-9
  14. Clarke, R.T., Mendiondo, E.M., Brusa, I.C. Uncertainties in mean annual discharge from two large South American rivers due to rating curve variability, Hydrol. Sci. 45, 221-236, 2000 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626660009492321
  15. Huet, S., Bouvier, A., Gruet, M.A., Jolivet, E. Statistical Tools for Nonlinear Regression, Springer, London, 1996
  16. Huet, S., Bouvier, A., Gruet, M.A., Jolivet, E. Statistical Tools for Nonlinear Regression. Springer, London, 1996
  17. Seber, G.A.F., Wild, C.J. Nonlinear Regression, Wiley, Chichester, 1989
  18. 서혜선, 양경숙, 김나영, 김희영, 김미정 SPSS를 활용한 회귀분석, SPSS 아카데미, pp. 233-262, 2003
  19. Efron, B., Tibshirani, R.J. An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall, London, 1993