Korea journal of population studies (한국인구학)

The Population Association of Korea (한국인구학회)
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Transformation and Future Prospect in the U.S. Census: Focusing on 2000 Census Experience and 2010 Census Plans

미국 센서스의 변화와 향후 전망: 2000년의 경험과 2010년의 계획을 중심으로

  • Published : 2008.08.25
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Abstract

This paper discusses transformation of the US population census since 1990 and its future prospects by mentioning the 2000 census experience and the 2010 census plans. First, it examines the recommendations written for the 2000 census by the Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council, such as introduction of statistical estimation, response rate improvement, long form improvement, adjustment in differential undercount by race/ethnicity, alternative census methods, collection of small-area statistics in non-census years, and census frame enhancement, and describes how the US Supreme Court decision of 1998 led the Census Bureau to fail in conducting the US version of One Number Census which uses statistical estimation by matching actual enumerations from the Census main survey and post-enumeration survey. Second, it examines one key element of the 2010 U. S. census, say, the separation of long form from short form and describes the main features of American Community Survey, a rolling census which replaces long-form component of the traditional US "Decennial Census" Another element is MAF/TIGER Enhancement Program which aims to improve enumeration accuracy in the traditional short-form census and help the Census Bureau introduce a mobile computer system as part of high-tech census operation. In this paper, it is pointed out that the separation of long form from short form is not an accidental one which results from the US Supreme Court decision, but the Census Bureau at this time in 2008 worries about the accuracy of enumeration because it has failed to develop a mobile computer system and will have to canvass 115 million households by paper and pencil by hiring 600 thousand temporary census workers.

이 글은 1990년부터 진행된 미국의 인구센서스의 변화와 향후의 전망에 대해서 2000년의 경험과 2010년의 계획을 중심으로 논의한다. 먼저, 2000년 센서스의 준비과정에서 미국 과학원학술평의회 국가통계위원회가 작성한 2000년 센서스 개선안의 내용을 통계적 추정방법 도입, 응답률 개선방안, long form 개선방안, 소수민족 집계누락, 인구센서스 대체방안, 센서스 비실시 연도 소지역통계 확보방안, 센서스 프레임 정비 등으로 살펴보고, 1998년 대법원 판결 이후 2000년 센서스에서 통계적 추정방법을 이용한 미국판 One Number Census를 추진하지 못하게 된 경위를 검토한다. 다음은 2010년 인구센서스의 핵심적 특성의 하나인 long form과 short form의 분리, 곧 short form은 전통적 센서스, 곧 전수조사와 현장실사의 원칙을 준수하는 방식으로 그대로 두고, long form을 대체하여 순환센서스로 진행되는 American Community Survey에 대해서는 그 과정과 주요 특성을 검토한다. MAF/TIGER는 인구센서스의 집계과정에서 정확성을 향상 하고자 하는 또 하나의 특성으로, 이것은 2010년 센서스에서 모바일 컴퓨터를 도입하는 하이테크 센서스를 목표로 기획된 것이었다. 이 글은 미국 센서스에서 short form과 long form의 분리가 대법원 판결로 우연히 일어난 것이 아니라는 점을 강조하기는 하지만, 미국 센서스는 2008년 현재, 인구조사국의 모바일컴퓨터 개발실패로 60만 비정규직 조사원의 고용을 불가피하게 할 것으로 예상되며, 이로 말미암아 2010년 미국 센서스의 정확성에 대한 우려감이 증대하고 있음을 지적한다.

Keywords

References

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