제주도 한라산 노루 적정 개체수에 관한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델링

System Dynamics Modeling for Management of Roe Deer Population in Jejudo

Roe Deer has been preserved for 25 years by the local government and the residents in Jejudo. However, the damage and harm of crops of the residents by Roe Deer are increasing as well. So, some experts worry about the unstability of ecosystem in Mt. Halla where Roe Deer live. This paper discuss the suitable number of Roe Deer population in Jejudo to protect the ecosystem in Mt. Halla and minimize the damage of residents in Jejudo. With system dynamics modeling and simulation, the population of Roe Deer at present is estimated about 2,300. However, the population of Roe Deer stays 'unstable balance'. So, a little change such as poaching and the increase of wild dogs may make the balance of ecosystem broken. According to the result of policy test simulation, we should keep on watching the poaching and maintain the number of wild dogs at about 100, so that the ecosystem in Jejudo can be stable. To reduce the moving of Roe Deer to low region, moreover, we should protect the Mt. Halla which is Roe Deer's habitat. If we are indifferent about these efforts, the ecosystem of Roe Deer in Mt. Halla will be ruined.