DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Prediction of Strong Ground Motion in Moderate-Seismicity Regions Using Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios

  • 강태섭 (한국지질자원연구원 지질연구센터)
  • 발행 : 2007.08.31

초록

For areas such as the Korean Peninsula, which have moderate seismic activity but no available records of strong ground motion, synthetic seismograms can be used to evaluate ground motion without waiting for a strong earthquake. Such seismograms represent the estimated ground motions expected from a set of possible earthquake scenarios. Local site effects are especially important in assessing the seismic hazard and possible ground motion scenarios for a specific fault. The earthquake source and rupture dynamics can be described as a two-step process of rupture initiation and front propagation controlled by a frictional sliding mechanism. The seismic wavefield propagates through heterogeneous geological media and finally undergoes near-surface modulations such as amplification or deamplification. This is a complex system in which various scales of physical phenomena are integrated. A unified approach incorporates multi-scale problems of dynamic rupture, radiated wave propagation, and site effects into an all-in-one model using a three-dimensional, fourth-order, staggered-grid, finite-difference method. The method explains strong ground motions as products of complex systems that can be modified according to a variety of fine-scale rupture scenarios and friction models. A series of such deterministic earthquake scenarios can shed light on the kind of damage that would result and where it would be located.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Field, E. H. and the SCEC Phase III Working Group, 'Accounting for site effects in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of southern California: overview of the SCEC Phase III Report', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 90, No. 6B, 2000, pp. S1-S31 https://doi.org/10.1785/0120000512
  2. Kang, T.-S. and Baag, C.-E., 'Finite-difference seismic simulation combining discontinuous grids with locally variable timesteps', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 1, 2004a, pp. 207-219 https://doi.org/10.1785/0120030080
  3. Kang, T.-S. and Baag, C.-E., 'An efficient finite-difference method for simulating 3D seismic response of localized basin structures', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 94, No. 5, 2004b, pp. 1690-1705 https://doi.org/10.1785/012004016
  4. Kawase, H., 'The cause of the damaged belt zone: the basin-edge effect, constructive interference of the direct S-wave with the basin-induced diffracted / Rayleigh waves', Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 67, 1996, pp. 25-34
  5. Kostrov, B., 'Self-similar problems of propagation of shear cracks', Journal of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, Vol. 28, 1964, pp. 1077-1087 https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-8928(64)90010-3
  6. Madariaga, R., Olsen, K. B. and Archuleta, R., 'Modeling dynamic rupture in a 3D earthquake fault model', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 88, 1998, pp. 1182-1197
  7. Olsen, K. B. and Archuleta, R. J., 'Three-dimensional simulation of earthquake on the Los Angeles fault system', Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 86, 1996, pp. 575-596
  8. Panza, G. F., Romanelli, F., Vaccari, F., Decanini, L. and Mollaioli, F., 'Seismic ground motion modeling and damage earthquake scenarios: a possible bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers', in Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Strong Ground Motion, edited by Chen, Y. T., Panza, G. F. and Wu, Z. L., Seismological Press, Beijing, China, 2004, pp. 323-349
  9. Pitarka, A., Irikura, K., Iwata, T. and Kagawa, T., 'Basin structure effects in the Kobe area inferred from the modeling of ground motions from two aftershocks of the January 17, 1995 Hygoken-nambu earthquake', Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 44, 1996, pp. 563-576 https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe1952.44.563