대기 (Atmosphere)
- 제17권1호
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- Pages.55-68
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- 2007
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- 1598-3560(pISSN)
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- 2288-3266(eISSN)
ECHO-G/S를 활용한 미래 동아시아 기후 전망
Future Climate Projection over East Asia Using ECHO-G/S
- Cha, Yu-Mi (Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, KMA) ;
- Lee, Hyo-Shin (Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, KMA) ;
- Moon, JaYeon (Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, KMA) ;
- Kwon, Won-Tae (Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, KMA) ;
- Boo, Kyong-On (Climate Research Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, KMA)
- 투고 : 2006.11.23
- 심사 : 2007.01.24
- 발행 : 2007.03.31
초록
Future climate changes over East Asia are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G). Climate simulation in the 21st century is conducted with three standard SRES scenarios (A1B, B1, and A2) and the model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment. From the present climate simulation (20C3M), the model reproduced reliable climate state in the most fields, however, cold bias in temperature and dry bias of summer in precipitation occurred. The intercomparison among models using Taylor diagram indicates that ECHO-G/S exhibits smaller mean bias and higher pattern correlation than other nine AOGCMs. Based on SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. Changes of geographical patterns from the present to the future are considerably similar through all the scenarios except for the magnitude difference. The temperature in winter and precipitation in summer show remarkable increase. In spite of the large uncertainty in simulating precipitation by regional scale, we found that the summer (winter) precipitation at eastern coast (north of