한국환경과학회지 (Journal of Environmental Science International)

  • 제16권3호
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  • Pages.287-297
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  • 2007
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  • 1225-4517(pISSN)
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  • 2287-3503(eISSN)
한국환경과학회 (The Korean Environmental Sciences Society)
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IPCC 배출시나리오에 따른 지구 규모의 탄소 이동 연구

Global Carbon Cycle Under the IPCC Emissions Scenarios

  • 권오열 (서울산업대학교 환경공학과)
  • Kwon, O-Yul (Department of Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University of Technology)
  • 발행 : 2007.03.28
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초록

Increasing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change has been perturbing the balanced global carbon cycle and changing the carbon distribution among the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, the soil, and the ocean. SGCM(Simple Global Carbon Model) was used to simulate global carbon cycle for the IPCC emissions scenarios, which was six future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change set by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations for four scenarios were simulated to continuously increase to $600{\sim}1050ppm$ by the year 2100, while those for the other two scenarios to stabilize at $400{\sim}600ppm$. The characteristics of these two $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios are to suppress emissions below $12{\sim}13$ Gt C/yr by tile year 2050 and then to decrease emissions up to 5 Gt C/yr by the year 2100, which is lower than the current emissions of $6.3{\pm}0.4$ Gt C/yr. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere was simulated to continuously increase for four scenarios, while to increase by the year $2050{\sim}2070$ and then decrease by the year 2100 for the other two scenarios which were $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios. Even though the six emission scenarios showed different simulation results, overall patterns were such similar that the amount of carbon was in the terrestrial biosphere to decrease first several decades and then increase, while in the soil and the ocean to continuously increase. The ratio of carbon partitioning to tile atmosphere for the accumulated total emissions was higher for tile emission scenario having higher atmospheric $CO_2$, however that was decreasing as time elapsed. The terrestrial biosphere and the soil showed reverse pattern to the atmosphere.

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참고문헌

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