Design and Assessment of an Ozone Potential Forecasting Model using Multi-regression Equations in Ulsan Metropolitan Area

중회귀 모형을 이용한 울산지역 오존 포텐셜 모형의 설계 및 평가

This study presented the selection of ozone ($O_3$) potential factors and designed and assessed its potential prediction model using multiple-linear regression equations in Ulsan area during the springtime from April to June, $2000{\sim}2004$. $O_3$ potential factors were selected by analyzing the relationship between meterological parameters and surface $O_3$ concentrations. In addition, cluster analysis (e.g., average linkage and K-means clustering techniques) was performed to identify three major synoptic patterns (e.g., $P1{\sim}P3$) for an $O_3$ potential prediction model. P1 is characterized by a presence of a low-pressure system over northeastern Korea, the Ulsan was influenced by the northwesterly synoptic flow leading to a retarded sea breeze development. P2 is characterized by a weakening high-pressure system over Korea, and P3 is clearly associated with a migratory anticyclone. The stepwise linear regression was performed to develop models for prediction of the highest 1-h $O_3$ occurring in the Ulsan. The results of the models were rather satisfactory, and the high $O_3$ simulation accuracy for $P1{\sim}P3$ synoptic patterns was found to be 79, 85, and 95%, respectively ($2000{\sim}2004$). The $O_3$ potential prediction model for $P1{\sim}P3$ using the predicted meteorological data in 2005 showed good high $O_3$ prediction performance with 78, 75, and 70%, respectively. Therefore the regression models can be a useful tool for forecasting of local $O_3$ concentration.