Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Study of Drought Spatio-Temporal Characteristics Using SPI-EOF Analysis

SPI 가뭄지수의 EOF 분석을 이용한 가뭄의 시공간적인 특성 연구

  • Chang Yung-Yu (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering., Univ. of Incheon) ;
  • Kim Sang-Dan (Dept. of Environmental System Engineering., Pukyung National University) ;
  • Choi Gye-Woon (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering., Univ. of Incheon)
  • 장연규 (인천대학교 토목환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경시스템공학부) ;
  • 최계운 (인천대학교 토목환경시스템공학과)
  • Published : 2006.08.01
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Abstract

This study introduced a method to evaluate the probability of a specific area to be affected by a drought of a given severity and shows Its potential for investigating agricultural drought characteristics. The method was applied to South Korea as a case study. The proposed procedure included Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) time series, which were linearly transformed by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method. These EOFs were extended temporally with AutoRegressive Moving Average(ARMA) method and spatially with Kriging method. By performing these simulations, long time series of SPI can be simulated for each designed grid cell in whole area. The probability distribution functions of the area covered by a drought and the drought severity are then derived and combined to produce drought severity-area-frequency(SAF) curves.

본 연구에서는 우리나라 가뭄의 공간적인 특성을 파악하고 가뭄의 진행에 따른 피해규모를 산정하기 위하여 가뭄 심도-영향면적-생기빈도 곡선을 작성하여 제시하였다. 이를 위하여 전국의 기상관측소 지점별로 SPI를 산정하였으며, 산정된 지점별 SPI 자료를 이용하여 EOF 분석을 실시하였다. EOF 분석으로부터 추출된 핵심 공간패턴자료들은 다시 공간적으로는 Kriging 기법을 이용하여 보다 세밀한 공간정보를 갖는 자료로 확장되었으며, ARMA 모형을 이용하여 장기간의 가뭄사상을 모의발생하였다. 모의발생된 공간적인 장기간의 가뭄사상들로부터 특정 가뭄심도별 영향면적별 생기빈도 곡선을 작성할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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