풍력발전 예보시스템 KIER Forecaster의 개발

Development of the Wind Power Forecasting System, KIER Forecaster

In this paper, the first forecasting system of wind power generation, KIER Forecaster is presented. KIER Forecaster has been constructed based on statistical models and was trained with wind speed data observed at Gosan Weather Station nearby Walryong Site. Due to short period of measurements at Walryong Site for training the model, Gosan wind data were substituted and transplanted to Walryong Site by using Measure-Correlate-Predict(MCP) technique. The results of One to Three-hour advanced forecasting models are consistent with the measurement at Walryong site. In particular, the multiple regression model by classification of wind speed pattern, which has been developed in this work, shows the best performance comparing with neural network and auto-regressive models.