한국경영과학회지 (Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)

  • 제31권2호
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  • Pages.157-167
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  • 2006
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  • 1225-1119(pISSN)
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  • 2733-4759(eISSN)
한국경영과학회 (The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)
권호 표지

패널자료를 이용한 가격인상에 따른 판매량의 동적변화 추정 및 예측

Estimation and Forecasting of Dynamic Effects of Price Increase on Sales Using Panel Data

  • 발행 : 2006.06.01
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초록

Estimating the effects of price increase on a company's sales is important task faced by managers. If consumer has prior information on price increase or expects it, there would be stockpiling and subsequent drops in sales. In addition, consumer can suppress demand in the short run. These factors make the sales dynamic and unstable. In this paper we develop a time series model to evaluate the sales patterns with stockpiling and short-term suppression of demand and also propose a forecasting procedure. For estimation, we use panel data and extend the model to Bayesian hierarchical structure. By borrowing strength across cross-sectional units, this estimation scheme gives more robust and reasonable result than one from the individual estimation. Furthermore, the proposed scheme yields improved predictive power in the forecasting of hold-out sample periods.

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참고문헌

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