Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Analyzing Impacts of Telecommunications on Travel Using Structural Equation Modeling

구조방정식모형을 이용한 통신이 통행에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Published : 2006.05.31
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Abstract

The Purpose of this study is to analyze telecommunications impacts on travel in a comprehensive system, considering demand, supply, costs, and land use. This study first Presents a conceptual model, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity, and socio-demographics. Then, based on the conceptual model, the aggregate causal relationships between telecommunications (local telephone calls, toll calls, and mobile phone subscribers) and travel (vehicle-miles traveled and number of transit Passengers) are explored in a comprehensive framework, using structural equation modeling of national time series data spanning 1950-2000 in the U.S. The model results suggest that as telecommunications demand increases, travel demand increases, and vice versa. Additionally. transportation infrastructure and land use significantly affect travel demand.

본 연구는 총체적 관점에서 통신이 통행에 미치는 영향을 수요, 공급, 비용, 토지이용 등의 인과관계를 고려한 종합적인 체계속에서 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위해 통행, 통신, 토지이용, 경제활동, 사회인구지표를 고려한 개념적 모형을 개발하였다. 그리고 이 개념적 모형을 토대로 미국의 $1950{\sim}2000$년의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 통신(시내 전화통화 수, 장거리 전화통화 수, 이동전화가입자수)과 통행 (vehicle-miles traveled와 대중교통이용자수)간의 구조방정식 모형을 개발하였다. 연구결과 통신의 이용이 승용차 및 대중교통의 통행을 증가시키는 것으로 분석되었다. 이밖에 교통시설공급 확대와 토지이용(도시교외화)도 통행에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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