Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials

  • 제7권5호
  • /
  • Pages.217-223
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  • 2006
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  • 1229-7607(pISSN)
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  • 2092-7592(eISSN)
한국전기전자재료학회 (The Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers)
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Equipment Failure Forecasting Based on Past Failure Performance and Development of Replacement Strategies

  • Begovic, Miroslav (School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology) ;
  • Perkel, Joshua (School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology) ;
  • Hartlein, Rick (School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology)
  • 발행 : 2006.10.01
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초록

When only partial information is available about equipment failures (installation date and amount, as well as failure and replacement rates), data on sufficiently large number of yearly populations of the components can be combined, and estimation of model parameters may be possible. The parametric models may then be used for forecasting of the system's short term future failure and for formulation of replacement strategies. We employ the Weibull distribution and show how we estimate its parameters from past failure data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is possible to assess confidence ranges of the forecasted component performance data.

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참고문헌

  1. Papoulis, A. and Pillai, S. U., 'Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes', Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2002
  2. Dodson, B., 'Weibull Analysis', ASQ Quality Press, Milwaukee, 1994
  3. Brown, R., 'Electric Power Distribution Reliability', Marcel Dekker, New York, 2002
  4. Billinton, R. and Allan, R., 'Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems', Second Edition, Plenum Press, New York, 1996
  5. Ibrahim, J., Chen, M.-H., and Sinha, D., 'Bayesian Survival Analysis', Springer Verlag, NY, 2001
  6. R. Billinton and W. Wenyuan Li, 'Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods', New York: Plenum, 1994
  7. W. Li, 'Incorporating aging failures in power system reliability evaluation,' IEEE Trans. Power Syst., Vol. 17, p. 918, 2002 https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2002.800989
  8. Forrest, I. W., 'Predicting Medium Voltage Underground Power Cable Failures and Replacement Costs', presented at the Western Electric Power Institute Underground Distribution Workshop, Portland, OR, 1997

피인용 문헌

  1. Underground power cables-life analysis and reliability prognosis vol.7, pp.3, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1556/Pollack.7.2012.3.1