Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Independent Component Analysis of Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature and Summer Seasonal Rainfall

Nino3.4지역 SST 및 여름강수량의 독립성분분석

  • Published : 2005.12.01
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Abstract

We examined problems of the principal component analysis(PCA), which is able to analyze at the low dimensionality as a methodologv to assess hydrologic time series, and introduced the theory and characteristics of independent component analysis(ICA) that can supplement problems of principal component analysis. We also applied the global sea surface temperature(SST) of the Nino region and assessed the correlation between El $\tilde{n}ino$-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and SST. The results of examining separation-ability of principal components using mixed signals indicate that the independent component analysis is statistically superior compared to that of the principal component analysis. Finally, we assessed correlation between ENSO and global anomaly SST. The independent component analysis was applied to the $5^{\circ}{\times}5^{\circ}$(latitude and longitude) global anomaly SST in the Nino+3.4 region that is the El $\tilde{n}ino$ observation section. We assessed the correlation with the ENSO years. These results of the analysis show that only one independent component($86\%$) was able to represent the entire behavior and was consistent with the main ENSO years. Finally, we carried out independent component analysis for summer seasonal rainfalls at nine stations and could extract ICs to reflect geographical characteristics. The increasing trend has been shown at IC-1 and IC-2 since 1970s.

수문시계열을 분석하기 위한 방법으로 낮은 차원에서 해석이 가능한 주성분분석 방법의 문제점을 검토하고 이를 보완할 수 있는 독립성분분석의 이론과 특성을 검토하였고 수문기상자료인 Nino지역의 해수면온도에 적용하여 El $\tilde{n}ino$-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) 사상과의 상관성을 평가하였다. 혼합자료를 사용하여 독립성분분석 방법의 주성분 분리 능력을 검토한 결과 독립성분분석이 기존 주성분분석에 비해 통계적으로 우수한 결과를 나타내었다. El $\tilde{n}ino$의 감시구역인 Nino+3.4지역의 $5^{\circ}{\times}5^{\circ}$(위도와 경도)의 총 20개 Global Anomaly SST 격자자료를 대상으로 분석을 실시하여 El $\tilde{n}ino$-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)사상의 발생시기와의 상관관계를 평가하였으며 한 개의 독립성분($86\%$)만으로 SST의 전체적인 거동을 표현할 수 있었으며 주요 ENSO 발생시기와 일치하는 결과를 나타내었다. 또한 국내 주요지점의 여름 강수량을 대상으로 독립성분분석을 적용한 결과 지역적인 특성을 고려하여 비교적 합리적으로 독립성분을 추출할 수 있었으며 IC-1과 IC-2에서 1970년대 이후로 여름강수량의 증가를 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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