SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ABOUT THE METHODS OF UTILIZING THE HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION FOR KOREAN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING (I) : THEORETICAL METHODS AND FORMULATIONS

  • Jeong, Chang-Sam (Hydrosystems Engineering Center, Korea Institute of Water and Environment, Korea Water Resources Cooperation) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Jin (Hydrosystems Engineering Center, Korea Institute of Water and Environment, Korea Water Resources Cooperation) ;
  • Ko, Ick-Hwan (Hydrosystems Engineering Center, Korea Institute of Water and Environment, Korea Water Resources Cooperation) ;
  • Heo, Jun-Haeng (Department of Civil Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, Sejong University)
  • 발행 : 2005.04.01

초록

Nowadays Climate disasters are frequently happening due to occasional occurrences of EI Nino and La Nina events and among them, water shortage is one of the serious problems. To cope with this problem, climate model simulations can give very helpful information. To utilize the climate model for enhancing the water resources planning techniques, probabilistic measures of the effectiveness of global climate model (GCM) simulations of an indicator variable for discriminating high versus low regional observations of a target variable are proposed in this study. The objective of this study is to present the various analysis methods to find the suitable application methods of GCM information for Korean water resources planning. The basic formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two variables. The various methods for adopting correct association, changing the window size, discrimination condition, and the use of temporally down scaled data were proposed to find out the suitable way for Korean water resources planning.

키워드

참고문헌

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