Analyzer's Confidence on Simulation Results

SD 시뮬레이션 결과에 대한 분석가의 자신감(confidence)에 관한 연구

Analyzers adopt a variety of techniques in analyzing public policy. Based on the results of exploration, they explain problems and suggest prescriptions such as policy alternatives. By doing so, however, they have different degree of confidence in their own results according to what techniques they adopt. This study explores whether system dynamics apporach gives analyzers more confidence on their own simulation results than other approaches do. This study designed an experiment. Three research teams are organized. Each of them applies different analytic techniques on the same policy issue, i.e., introduction of transportation tax. It flnds that researchers using S,D. simulation technique are most confident on what they predict, while researchers adopting survey techniques show moderate degree of confidence on their results. Researchers using regression are least confident.