Water Engineering Research

한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
권호 표지

LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW SENSITIVITY TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY UNDER IPCC SRES CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

  • Kang, Boo-sik (Hydrosystems Engineering Center, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Jorge a. ramirez, Jorge-A.-Ramirez (Department of Civil Engineering, Colorado State University)
  • 발행 : 2004.04.01
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초록

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

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참고문헌

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