Korea journal of population studies (한국인구학)

The Population Association of Korea (한국인구학회)
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An Explanatory Data Analysis about the Relationship between Mortality Level and Four Indicators Relating to the Causes Mortality Decline

사망수준과 사망 원인관련 지표들 간의 관계에 대한 자료탐색 분석

  • Published : 2003.12.01
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relative importance of three factor -socioeconomic development, public health development, egalitarian nature of socioeconomic development- affecting mortality declines. Infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth are used as the mortality index, that is the dependent variables, while GNP is used as the indicator of socioeconomic development, primary school enrollment ratio of female as the indicator of egalitarian nature of socioeconomic development, population per hospital bed as the indicator of public health. The data of these variables are collected two time-periods -before 1970 and during 1970-1980- over 50 countries. The explanatory data analysis is used as the statistical technique. We can find whether the relationship between dependent variable and independent variables are linear or nonlinear, and which case is the influential case in our model. The main results of this study are followings. First, the association between infant mortality rates and four indices are not linear. The most important factor explaining the variation of infant mortality is GNP, while primary enrollment of female is the second and GINI is the third important factor. However, population per hospital bed does not have a significant effect on the infant mortality rates in this study. Second, life expectancy at birth is log-linearly related to GNP. Unlike infant mortality rates, the most important factor explaining the variation of life expectance at birth is women's education and the next important factor GNP, and then the third one GINI. But, still population per hospital bed is not significantly related to the variation of life expectance in this study.

이 연구의 목적은 사망수준의 저하에 영향을 미치는 세 요소-사회경제적 발전, 공공 보건의 발달, 사회경제적 발달의 균등상태-의 상대적 중요성을 분석하는 것이다. 종속변수인 사망 수준의 지표로는 영아사망률과 출생시 기대수명 등 두 변수가 사용되었다. 국민총생산(GNP)은 사회 경제적 발달지표로 여성의 초등학교 취학률과 기니계수(GINI index)는 사회경제적 균등상태 지표로 병원침대당 인구수는 공공보건 지표로 간주되었다. 변수들에 대한 자료는 두 시점에 걸쳐 수집되었다. 하나는 1970년 이전 53개국에서. 다른 하나는 1970-80년대 55개국에서 수집되었다. 탐색적 자료 분석 방법이 통계 분석 방법으로 사용되었다. 이 기법은 종속변수와 독립변수와의 관계가 선형인지 아닌지, 그리고 우리 모형에서 어느 것이 유력 사례인지를 파악할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 분석결과에 따르면, 첫째로 영아 사망률과 세 요소의 관계가 선형이 아니라 비선형임이 밝혀졌다. 영아 사망률 저하에 국민총생산이 가장 많이, 여성의 초등학교 취학률이 두 번째, 기니계수가 그 다음으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 병원침대당 인구수는 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 보여주지 않았다. 둘째, 출생시 기대수명은 여성의 취학률, 기니계수 등과 같은 변수와는 선형 관계를 가지는 반면 국민총생산 변수와는 비선형 관계를 가진다. 영아사망률 변수와는 달리 출생시 기대수명의 변이에는 여성의 초등학교 취학률이 국민총생산보다 더 커다란 영향을 미쳤다.

Keywords

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