A Study on the Way to Improve Quality of Asset Portfolio Management Using Structural Time-Series Model

구조적 시계열모형을 이용한 자산포트폴리오 관리의 개선 방안

  • 이창수 (숭실대학교 정보통계학과)
  • Published : 2003.09.01

Abstract

Criteria for the comparison of quality of asset portfolio management are risk and return. In this paper a method to use structural time-series model to determine an optimal portfolio for the improvement of quality of asset portfolio management is suggested. In traditional mean variance analysis expected return is assumed to be time-invariant. However, it is more realistic to assume that expected return is temporally dynamic and structural time-series model can be used to reflect time-varying nature of return. A data set from an insurance company was used to show validity of suggested method.

Keywords

References

  1. 성내경(2001), 「SAS/IML 행렬 연산」,자유아카데미
  2. 이창수·이광봉(2002), 모수추정치의 오차가 포트폴리오의 최적성에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구, 금융공학연구, pp.169-178
  3. Casdagli, M. and Eubank, S.(1998),NonIinear Modeling and Forecasting,Santa Institute, Addison-Wesley
  4. Chopra, Vijay K. and Ziemba, William(1998), The Effect of Errors in Means,Variances, and Covariances of OptimalPortfoIio Choice, Worldwide Asset and Liability Modeling, Publication of the Newton Institute
  5. Hartmann, Wolfgang M., The NLP Procedure : Release 6.10 NonlinearProgramming Extended User's Guide,SAS Institute, Inc
  6. A. C. Harvey(1984), A Unified Viewof Statistical Forecasting Procedures, Journal of Forecasting, pp.245-275
  7. Kalman, R.E.(1960), A New Approachto Linear Filtering and PredictionProblems, Transactions ASME Journalof Basic Engineering, 82, pp. 35-45
  8. Kwan, Clarence C. Y.(1984), PortfoilioAnalysis using Simple Index, MuIti-Index, and Constant CorrelationModels: A Unified Treatment, Journalof Finance, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp.1469-1484 https://doi.org/10.2307/2327738
  9. Markowitz, H. M.(1959), PortfolioSeIection: Efficient Diversification ofInvestments, John Wiley & Sons,New York
  10. Remaley, William.(1973), Suboptimizationin Mean-Variance Efficient Set Analysis,Journal of Finance, No. 2 , pp. 397-403
  11. Siem Jan Koopman, Andrew C.Harvey, Jurgen A. Doornik and NeilShephard, Stamp 5.0(Structural TimeSeries Analyser, Modeller andPredictor), Chapman & Hall