Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Application of Uncertainty Method fer Analyzing Flood Inundation in a River

하천 홍수범람모의를 위한 불확실도 해석기법의 적용

  • 김종해 (한국수자원공사 댐건설처) ;
  • 한건연 (경북대학교 공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 서규우 (동의대학교 토목도시공학부 토목공학)
  • Published : 2003.08.01
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Abstract

The reliability model is developed for analyzing parameter uncertainty and estimating of flood inundation characteristics in a protected lowland. The approach is based on the concept of levee safety factor and the statistical analysis of model parameters affecting the variability of flood levels. Monte Carlo simulation is incorporated into the varied flow and unsteady flow analysis to quantify the impact of parameter uncertainty on the variability of flood levels. The model is applied to a main stem of the Nakdong River from Hyunpoong to Juckpogyo station. Simulation results show that the characteristics of channel overflow and return now are well simulated and the mass conservation was satisfied. The inundation depth and area are estimated by taking into consideration of the uncertainty of width and duration time of levee failure.

본 연구는 홍수위 계산에 있어서 도입되는 불확식성의 원인을 분석하고 정량화하여 확률론적 홍수위 계산을 실시함으로서 제방원류에 대한 제내지의 범람특성을 해석할 수 있는 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위해서 홍수위에 영향을 미치는 각종 영향인자를 통계학적으로 분석하였고, 이들 인자를 부등류와 부정류 해석과정에 Monte Carlo 모의를 도입함으로써 홍수위에 미치는 영향을 정량화하였다. 개발된 모형의 검증을 위해 낙동강 유역의 현풍∼적포교구간에 적용하였다. 제내지로의 범람양상과 역류양상을 합리적으로 모의하였고 질량보존도 잘 모의하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 제내지 침수양상 모의시 붕괴폭, 붕괴시간 등의 불확실도를 고려하여 침수수심 및 침수면적을 산정하였다.

Keywords

References

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