DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Structure Analysis of Ship′s Collision Causes using Fuzzy Structural Modeling

퍼지구조모델을 이용한 선박충돌사고 원인의 구조분석

  • Yang, Won-Jae (Division of Maritime Transportation System, Mokpo National Maritime University)
  • 양원재 (목포해양대학교 해상운송시스템학부)
  • Published : 2003.06.01

Abstract

The prevention of marine accidents has been a important topic in marine society for long time, and various safety policies and countermeasures have been developed and applied to prevent those accidents. In spite of these efforts, however, significant marine accidents have taken place intermittently. Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments, and many factors are related with ship's collision, whose factors are interacting. So, the analysis on ship's collision causes are very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. This study analysed the ship's collision data over the past 10 years(1991-2000), which is compiled by Korea Marine Accidents Inquiry Agency. The analysis confirmed that‘ship's collision’is occurred most frequently and the cause is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to analyse human factor. For this, the structure of human factor is analysed by the questionnaire methodology. Marine experts were surveyed based on major elements that were extracted from the human factor affecting to ship's collision. FSM has been widely adopted in modeling a dynamic system which is composed of human factors. Then, the structure analysis on the causes of ship's collision using FSM are performed. This structure model could be used in understanding and verifying the procedure of real ship's collision. Furthermore it could be used as the model to prevent ship's collision and reduce marine accidents.

지금까지 IMO를 비롯한 해운산업분야에서는 해상의 인명 재산, 해양환경보호에 항상 큰 관심을 가지고 해양사고예방을 위한 많은 노력들이 견주되어 왔다. 하지만 이러한 노력에도 불구하고 크고 작은 해양사고가 지속적으로 발생하고 있는 것이 오늘날의 현실이다. 한편, 선박충돌사고는 수많은 원인이 서로 복잡하게 상호작용을 하고 있어서 사고예방대책마련에 어려움이 많다 따라서, 선박충돌사고의 정량적인 분석을 위해서는 이들 상호작용요소간의 관계를 시스템적으로 파악하고 분석하는 것이 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 먼저, 지난 10년(1991-2000)간 국내에서 발생한 선박충돌사고에 대한 위험성을 분석하였고, 또한 사고발생에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 위해요소(Hazard)인 인적요소(Human Factor)에 대해서 전문가집단의 의견을 수렴하여 FSM기법을 이용하여 인적 위해요소를 계층화한 후 각 요소 상호간의 관련성을 분석하였다. 그 결과로써 인적요소에 의한 선박충돌사고의 발생과정과 각 계층에 속한 요소가 사고에 미치는 영향력을 규명하고, 각 요소간 상호관계를 파악하여 사고예방대책마련을 위한 우선순위를 결정할 수 있는 선박충돌사고의 인적요소 구조그래프를 제시하였다.

Keywords

References

  1. 중앙해양안전심판원, 1996, 2001, '해양안전심판사례집'
  2. 한국선급기술연구소, 1999, 'FSA 적용지침 개발'
  3. 해양수산부, 2000, '해양수산통계연보'
  4. 田崎 榮一卽, 1998. 'フアジィ理論に依る社會システム構造化' 別冊'敎理科學' ファジィ 理論への道,サイェシス社, pp.140-153
  5. 天笠美知夫, 1986, 'システム構成論―ファジィ理論を基礎として―', 森山書店
  6. 山下利之, 1996, 'ファジィ 構造モデルシよワ 職業選擇動機 および 職業生活設計の分折'. 日本ファジィ學會誌,vol. 8, No.5, pp.861-870
  7. 椎塚久雄, 伊蕂節子, 1992, 'ファジィ構造モデル : Case Study -學生採用悹る意識構造-', 經營の科學
  8. BIMCO Bulletin 5/93, 1993, Oct, p.12
  9. D. T. Bryant, 1991, 'The Human Element in Shipping Casualties', DOT, UK, pp. 12-13
  10. E. Tazaki and M. Amagasa, 1979, 'Structural Modeling in a Class of Systems U sing Fuzzy Sets Theory', Fuzzy Sets Systems. Vol.2 No.1, pp. 1-17 https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0114(79)90010-1
  11. IMO, MSC/65/15/1, 1995, 'Role of Human Element in Maritime Casualties', 10 Feb
  12. IMO, MSC/Circ.829, MEPC/Circ.335, 1997, 'Interim Guidelines for the Applications of FSA to IMO Rule-Making Process'
  13. Marine Safety Agency, UK, 1996, 'A Methodology for Formal Safety Assessment of Shipping', MSC 66 Informal Paper, 16 May
  14. Quality Action Team, USCG, 1995, 'Prevention Through People', 15 July

Cited by

  1. Assessment of Port Development Priority with Conflicts among Decision Makers -From the Perspective of Environment-friendly Port Development- vol.17, pp.1, 2011, https://doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2011.17.1.053