EPA 규제에 대한 WIPP 사이트 성능평가의 불확실성 분석에 관한 검토

A Brief Review on Uncertainty Analysis for the WIPP PA

  • 발행 : 2002.03.01

초록

미국 뉴멕시코주 칼스바드 동부에 위치한 WIPP 사이트가 1999년 처분 운영을 개시하였다. 이 WIPP 사이트는 미국 DOE의 방위프로그램에 의한 부산물로서의 핵폐기물인 초우라늄 방사성 폐기물 (TRU 폐기물) 만을 전담 영구 처분하는 처분장으로 처분장 성능에 대해 책임을 지고 있는 미국 에너지성 (DOE)은 이 처분장의 운영허가를 위해 WIPP 운영을 위한 <규제부합 인정신청 (CCA)>을 통하여 EPA로부터 허가를 얻어 1999년 3월에 첫 처분을 시작한 것이다. 이 CCA를 위한 성능평가 관련 연구는 미 샌디아연구소를 중심으로 수행되어, 장기간에 걸친 처분장 성능평가가 1996년에 모두 마무리지어졌다. 그 성능평가 연구의 결과나 과정은 비록 우리나라가 고려하고 있는 처분 환경과는 상당히 다른 지질 형태의 것이긴 해도 그 방법론에 대한 고찰은 이제 막 고준위 방사성 폐기물 처분관련 연구를 시작하는 단계에 있는 우리에게 교육적인 효과가 지대하다는 생각이다. 따라서 이 기술보고를 통해 이러한 WIPP 사이트의 성능평가에 관련되어 어떻게 어떠한 방법론을 도입하여 불확실성 및 민감도 분석연구가 수행되어졌는지, 그리고 정량적인 불확실성 분석의 결과를 요구하는 EPA 의 규제 기준을 어떠한 논리로 만족시켰는가에 대한 개략적인 검토를 수행하여 보았다.

The WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant), located 42km east of Carlsbad, New Mexico (NM), in bedded salt 655m below the surface, is a mined repository constructed by the US DOE for the permanent disposal of transuranic (TRU) wastes generated by activities related to defence of the US since 1970. Its historical disposal operation began in March 1999 following receipt of a final permit from the State of NM after a positive certification decision for the WIPP was issued by the EPA in 1998, as the first licensed facility in the US for the deep geologic disposal of radioactive wastes. The CCA (Compliance Certification Application) for the WIPP that the DOE submitted to the EPA in 1966 was supported by an extensive performance assessment (PA) carried out by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), with so-called 1996 PA. Even though such PA methodologies could be greatly different from the way we consider for HLW disposal in Korea largely due to quite different geologic formations in which repository are likely to be located, a review on lots of works done through the WIPP PA studies could be the most important lessons that we can learn from in view of current situation in Korea where an initial phase of conceptual studies on HLW disposal has been just started. The objective of this art report is an overview of the methodology used in the recent WIPP PA to support the US DOE WIPP CCA and some relevant results completed by SNL.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Environmental Standards for the Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Waste: Final Rule, 40CFR191, Federal Register, 50, 38066 (1985)
  2. B.A. Howard, 2000, Regulatory basis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf., 69, 109 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00028-4
  3. D.A. Galson et al., 2000, Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf., 69, 129 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00029-6
  4. J. Helton et al., 1991, Sensitivity Analysis Techniques and Results for Performance Assessment at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, SAND90-7103, UC721, Sandia National Laboratories
  5. J. Helton, 1993a, Risk, uncertainty in risk, and the EPA release limits for radioactive waste disposal, Nucl. Tech., 101, 18 https://doi.org/10.13182/NT93-A34765
  6. J. Helton, 1993b, Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf., 42, 327 https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(93)90097-I
  7. J.C. Helton et al., 2000, Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1966 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf, 69, 167 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00031-4
  8. J.C. Helton, 2000, Conceptual structure of the 1966 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf., 69, 151 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00030-2
  9. R.P. Rechard, 2000, Historical background on performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Reliab. Eng. Sys. Saf., 69, 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(00)00023-5
  10. R.P. Rechard, 1996, An Introduction to the Mechanics of Performance Assessment Using Examples of Calculations Done for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant between 1990 and 1992, SAND93-1378, 4-22
  11. R.V. Guzowsky, 1991, Applicability of probability techniques to determining the probability of the occurrence of potentially distruptive intrusive events at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, SAND90-7100
  12. S. Kaplan and B.J. Garrick, 1981, On the quantitative definition of risk, Risk AnaL, 1, 11 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x