Health Policy and Management (보건행정학회지)

Korean Academy of Health Policy and Management (한국보건행정학회)
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A Study on the Usefulness of EVA as Hospital Bankruptcy Prediction Index

병원도산 예측지표로서 EVA의 유용성

  • 양동현 (인제대 보건대학원 병원경영학과)
  • Published : 2002.09.01
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Abstract

This study investigated how much EVA which evaluate firm's value can explain hospital bankruptcy prediction as a explanatory variable including financial indicators in Korea. In this study, artificial neural network and logit regression which are traditional statistical were used as the model for bankruptcy prediction. Data used in this study were financial and economic value added indicators of 34 bankrupt and -:4 non-bankrupt hospitals from the Database of Korean Health Industry Development Institute. The main results of this study were as follows: First, there was a significant difference between the financial variable model including EVA and the financial variable model excluding EVA in pre-bankruptcy analysis. Second, EVA could forecast bankruptcy hospitals up to 83% by the logistic analysis. Third, the EVA model outperformed the financial model in terms of the predictive power of hospital bankruptcy. Fourth, The predictive power of neural network model of hospital bankruptcy was more powerful than the legit model. After all the result of this study will be useful to future study on EVA to evaluate bankruptcy hospitals forecast.

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References

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