Development of Prediction Model for Fill Slope Failure of Forest Road

임도성토사면(林道盛土斜面)의 붕괴예측(崩壞豫測)모델 개발(開發)

This study was carried out to develop prediction model for fill slope failure of forest road in igneous rock area using fuzzy theory which is non-linear model. The results were summarized as follows. The importance weight of factors on fill slope failure was ranked in the order of fill slope length, fill slope gradient, soil type, aspect, road position and longitudinal slope form. The degree of potential slope failure was high mainly under the such conditions as fill slope length greater than 8m, fill slope gradients steeper than $40^{\circ}$, constituent material with weathered rock, aspect of NE and road on ridge position. The optimal prediction model was developed with 0.15 of optimal coefficient(c) and 3.1165 of ${\lambda}$-value when fuzzy integral value of slope failure possibility is more than 0.5. And the discriminant accuracy was 86.8%, which shows the high availability for discrimination.

본 연구는 비선형모델인 퍼지이론을 이용하여 화성암 지역의 임도성토사면을 대상으로 붕괴가능성 예측모델을 개발하였다. 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 임도 성토사면 붕괴요인의 중요도는 성토사면길이, 성토사면경사, 사면구성물질, 사면방위, 노선위치 등의 순으로 나타났으며, 붕괴위험도는 성토사면길이 8m 이상, 성토사면경사 $40^{\circ}$ 이상, 풍화암 사면, 북동사면 및 능선부 사면에서 크게 나타났다. 임도 성토사면의 붕괴예측 모델은 퍼지적분값 0.5를 기준으로 할 때, 최적화 계수(c)가 0.15, ${\lambda}$값이 3.1165인 경우에 최적 모델로 산출되었으며, 이때의 판별적중률은 86.8%로 모델의 적합성이 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다.