Capture-recapture 방법을 이용한 1998년 제주도 볼거리 유행시 보고 자료의 완전성 평가

Evaluation of the Completeness of Case Reporting during the 1998 Cheju-do Mumps Epidemic, Using Capture-recapture Methods

Objectives : To estimate mumps incidence during the study period and to evaluate the completeness of case reporting. Methods : Capture-recapture methods, originally developed for counting wildlife animals, were used. The data sources were 1) the National Notifiable Communicable Disease Reporting System (NNCDRS; 848 cases), 2) the School Health Reporting System, temporarily administered by the Division of Education (SHRS; 1,026 cases), and 3) a survey of students (785 cases). We estimated the number of unobserved mumps cases by matching the three data sources and fitting loglinear models to the data. We then determined the estimated total number of mumps cases by adding this to the number of observed cases. Completeness was defined as the proportion of observed cases from each source to the total of estimated cases. Results : The total number of observed cases was 1,844 and the total number of estimated cases was 1,935 (95%, CI: $1,878\sim2,070$). The overall completeness was 43.8% of the NNCDRS, 53.0% of the SHRS, and 40.6% of the survey. However, completeness varied by area and age. Conclusion : Although the completeness of NNCDRS data appeared higher than in the past, it is difficult to generalize this result In Korea, it is possible to estimate the size of health hazards relatively cheaply and quickly, by applying capture-recapture methods to various data using a multiple data collection system.