Gradient방법과 일반화최소자승법을 이용한 관측교통량기반 O/D 추정방법에 관한 예측력 비교평가 연구

Comparative study on the O/D estimation using Gradient method and Generalized Least Square method

  • 이승재 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 김종형 (서울시립대학교 도시공학과)
  • 발행 : 2000.04.01

초록

우리나라와 같은 개도국은 교통상황이 급변하고, 교통환경이 안정화되지 않은 사정을 고려해보면 비용과 시간이 다소 제약을 받고 있는 상황에 있어서 교통계획을 수립해야 하는 경우가 빈번히 발생한다고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 상황에서 O/D조사(가구방문조사, 노측면접조사 등)를 충실히 행하기에는 많은 어려움이 따르고, 그 결과 또한 만족할 만한 O/D를 구하기에는 현실적으로 매우 힘든 상황이라고 판단된다. 위와 같은 현실적인 문제점과 배경에 힘입어 최근 들어 국내외적으로 교통량을 기반으로 하여 O/D를 추정하는 기법개발에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있는 추세이다. 그러나, 현실적인 규모의 교통망상에 적용될 수 있는 연구는 많았지만, 그러한 접근법들의 장·단점을 비교 분석한 연구는 많지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구는 기존의 관측교통량을 이용한 O/D추정모형을 교통계획적 측면에서 정적(static)기법을 중심으로 살펴보고, 이러한 관측교통량으로 O/D를 추정하는 모형 중에서 대규모 교통망에서 현실적으로 이용가능성이 높다고 판단되는 2단계모형(bi-level(GLS))과 gradient방법을 중심으로 그 가능성과 타당성을 검토하였다. 연구방법은 2단계모형방법 (GLS방법)과 gradient 방법을 가상교통망에 적용하여 모형의 적정성을 평가한 후, 그 결과를 비교·분석하여 그 예측력을 살펴보았다.

In the developing country, the transportation situation is changed very quickly and the transportation environment is not stable. So the transportation planning should be frequently made in considering the limited cost and time. And the traditional large-scale survey(household survey, roadside interview, etc.) has many Problem like the difficulty for doing it and getting mood results. Therefore the study about the method of evaluation on the traffic count based O/D matrix is Processing actively recently. Though the many study for the network in the realistic size are enacted, the study for comparing with the advantage and disadvantage of each method are few. Therefore this study mainly deals with the static method among the existing models of evaluation on the traffic count based O/D matrix(in terms of the transportation plan). Bi-level(GU) and gradient method are selected as main alternative model and analyzed their capability and validity. For testing the reliability of the models, Bi-level(GLS) and gradient method are adapted to toy network. Then we analyze the result of testing, and study the way for large network.

키워드

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