SENSITIVITY OF THE KEUM RIVER BASIN TO CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Kim, Young-Oh (School of Civil, Urban and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seo, Yong-Won (School of Civil, Urban and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Seung-Hyun (School of Civil, Urban and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Ryul (Korean Institute of Construction Technology)
  • Published : 2000.10.01

Abstract

This study reports an examination of the sensitivity of water resources in the Keum River basin to climate change. Assuming a doubling in $CO_2$ concentrations, a cooperative study provided four climate change scenarios for this study, which have been translated into temperature and precipitation scenarios on a basin scale. The study utilized these temperature and precipitation data for each climate change scenario as inputs to the NWS-PC model to generate the corresponding streamflow scenario over the Keum River basin. A reservoir simulation model for the Dae-Chung Dam in the Keum River basin has been developed with an object-oriented simulation environment, STELLA. For each streamflow scenario, the performance of the reservoir was assessed in terms of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. Although the simulation results are heavily dependent on the choice of the climate change scenarios, the following conclusions can be clearly concluded: (1) the future streamflow over the Dae-Chung Dam tends to decease during the dry period, which seriously increases competitive water use issues and (2) flood control issues predominate under the $2CO_2$-High case.

Keywords

References

  1. Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J., and Loucks, P. (1982). 'Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability Criteria for Water Resource System Performance Evaluation', Water Resources Research Vol. 18 No. 1, pp. 14-20
  2. Kang, I.-S. (1993). 'A Study on Temperature Changes Scenario of Han Peninsular Due to Global Warming,' Symposium on Climatic Change Impacts to Han Peninsular-Ⅳ. Climatic Change Forecasting Scenario, Korea Meterological Agency, pp. 3-33
  3. Kim, Y.-O., and Seo, Y.-W. (2000). 'Research Trends in Climate Change Effects on Water Resources Management', Magazine of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 32-41
  4. Korea Advanced Institute of Science Technology (1995). Climate Chang Impact Assessment and Development of Visualization Techniques for Climate Information, Ministry of Environment
  5. Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, A. W., Palmer, R. N., Wood, E. F., and Stakhiv, E. Z., (1999) 'Water Resources Implications of Global Warming; A U.S. Regional Perspective', Climatic Change, Vol. 43, pp. 537-579 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005448007910
  6. Palmer, R. N., Keyes, A. M., and Fisher, S. (1993). 'Empowering Stakeholders Through Simulation in Water Resources Planning', Proceedings of the 20th Water Resources Planning and Management Conference, ASCE, Seattle, WA, pp. 451-454
  7. Richardson, W. W. (1981). 'Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation', Water Resources Research, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 182-190
  8. Seo, Y.-W., and Kim, Y.-O. (2000). 'Research Trend in Climate Change Effects on Runoff', Korea Water Resources Association Magazine, Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 22-31
  9. Yoo, C. and Lee, D.-R. (2000). 'A Study on the Variation of Wet Days and Rainfall Intensity Due to Climate Change', Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 20, No. 4-B, pp. 1-10
  10. Yoon, Y.-N., Yoo, C., Ahn, J.-H., Yang, I.-T. and Koh, D.-K. (1998a). 'An Analysis on the Variation of Long-term Runoff Characteristics of Basin Before and After Dam Construction :Ⅰ. Estimation of NWS-PC Model Parameters Using GIS', Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 18, No. Ⅱ-5, pp. 449-459
  11. Yoon, Y.-N., Kang, B.-S., Kim, U.-T., Kim, J.-H. and Ko, I.-H. (1998b). 'An Analysis on the Variation of Long-term Runoff Characteristics of Basin Before and After Dam Construction :Ⅰ. An Analysis on the Variation of Long-Term Runoff Characteristics of Basin Using Model Parameters Estimation', Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 18, No.Ⅱ-5, pp. 461-468