Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
- 제32권2호
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- Pages.191-199
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- 1999
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- 1975-8375(pISSN)
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- 2233-4521(eISSN)
서울시의 대기오염과 일별 사망자 수의 관련성에 대한 시계열적 연구
Air Pollution and Daily Modality in Seoul
- Cho, Soo-Hun (Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Institute of Environmental Medicine, SNUMRC) ;
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Kwon, Ho-Jang
(Department of Preventive Medicine, Dankook University College of Medicine)
- 발행 : 1999.06.01
초록
대기오염이 인체에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 1991년부터 1995년까지의 서울시 사망자료와 대기오염 자료를 general additive Poisson model 을 사용하여 분석하였다. 우리 나라에서도 외국의 연구 결과와 마찬가지로 대기 오염 물질의 증가가 사망자 수의 증가에 유의하게 영향을 미치는 것으로 평가되었다. 특히 본 연구에서 나타난 특성은 일반적으로 많이 알려진 분진에 의한 영향 보다는 오존에 의한 영향이 두드러진다는 것이다. 오존은 100ppb가 증가할 때 마다 사망자 수를 3-10% 증가시키는 것으로 평가되었다. 즉 오존주의보가 발령될 때마다 서울시에서는 많게는 평소보다 10%정도의 추가적인 사망이 발생하는 것으로 추정된다. 이러한 연구결과는 우리 나라의 대기오염 양상이 분진과
Objectives: To examine the relationship between air pollution exposure and mortality in Seoul for the years of 1991-1995, Methods: Daily counts of death were analyzed by general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for effects of secular trend, seasonal factor, day of the week, heat wave, temperature, and humidity. Pollution variables were ozone, nitrogen dioxide, total suspended particles(TSP), and sulfur dioxide. Results: Daily death counts were associated with ozone(1 day before), nitrogen dioxide(1 day before), TSP(2 days before), sulfur dioxide(2 days before). The association with ozone was most statisfically significant and independent of other air pollutants. Increase of 100 ppb in ozone was associated with 0%(95% Cl= 2%-10%) increase in the daily number of death, This effect was greater in persons aged 65 and older. The relative risks of death from respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease were greater than for all-cause mortality in each pollutant. After ozone level exceeds 25 ppb, the dose-response relationship between mortality and ozone was almost linear. However, the effect of TSP, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide on mortality might be confounded with each other. Conclusion: Daily variations in air pollution within the range currently occurring in Seoul might have an adverse effect on daily mortality.