한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Research)

  • 제1권1호
  • /
  • Pages.17-28
  • /
  • 1999
  • /
  • 1229-6031(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2384-0056(eISSN)
한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)
권호 표지

ARIMA 모형을 이용한 진양호 수질의 장래예측

Forecasting of Water Quality in Chinyang Reservoir Using ARIMA Model

  • 김종오 (경상대학교 도시공학과 및 환경보전연구소) ;
  • 유환희 (경상대학교 도시공학과 및 환경보전연구소) ;
  • 김옥선 (경상대학교 환경보전학과) ;
  • 박증석 (경상대학교 환경보전학과)
  • Kim, Jong-oh (Dept. of Urban Eng. and RIPT, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Yoo, Hwan-Hee (Dept. of Urban Eng. and RIPT, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Kim, Ok-Sun (Dept. of Environment Protection, Graduate School, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Park, Jung-Seok (Dept. of Environment Protection, Graduate School, Gyeongsang National University)
  • 발행 : 1999.12.30
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초록

The purpose of this study was to analysis water quality monitoring data and to estimate future trends using ARIMA model of time series analysis. Water quality data in Chin yang reservoir were used with monthly monitoring interval during past 7 years. The variations of water quality parameters with periodicity and trend could be estimated by multiplicative ARIMA models and the statistical tests showed a good agreement with the observed data. Therefore, the monthly values of water quality parameters could be forecasted using these models.

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