장기 인구전망을 통한 초등학교의 교육환경에 관한 연구

Prospects of Fundamental Conditions in Primary Education along with Population Structure Change in the Future

The purpose of the study was to ascertain the trends of future circumstances in primary education along with population change. These trends, which are subject to change in population and structure, have a great impact on the size and characteristics of primary school-aged children. Accordingly, it is imperative for the government to plan for future conditions involving primary education. The major findings of the study were as follows: 1. In the long-term primary school children aged 6-11, which accounted for 17.7% of the total population in 1970, will decline to 8.6% by the year 2000, 6.9% in 2020 and 6.4% in 2030. This drastic reduction in fertility rate is a direct result of pressure by the government to control population. 2. In 1996, the total number of classes in primary schools rose to 106,594. In the future, these numbers will actually decline. By 2003 the total number of classes will peak at 142,605, but until then drop off to 112,288 by 2030-a decrease of over 6,000. 3. The actual number of primary schools in 1997 totaled 5,721. This figure will reach its highest peak, 5,942, in 2003, but it is expected decrease later after declining by 1,263, it will bottom out at 4,679 in 2003. 4. The number of teachers at primary schools increased from 101,095 in 1970, 119, 064 in 1980, 136,800 in 1990 to 138,369 in 1995. Accordingly this means that the ratio of students to teaching staff changed for the better. By the year 2005, if teachers of specialty subjects (music, art, English, physical education) are assigned to every primary school with over 18 classrooms and the number of students per class is 30, it should improve educational surroundings. This is because it is expected that the population of primary school children will continue to grow until 2003 and then decrease. Thus, there is a need to maintain the number of primary school teachers between the years 2003 and 2030 so that the ratio of students to teachers will be reduced to 1/20.25. In considering factors related to migration which influence conditions of education, it is evident that changes have already begun. In the suburbs of Seoul, population shifts are causing overcrowding in classrooms. The government believes it would be inefficient to invest in education because fluctuating migration figures make it impossible. Accordingly, we have to be concerned about stabilizing the population throughout the entire country.