자동차사고 발생시 보험처리 의사결정에 관한 연구 -사고에 대한 조건부확율의 이용-

A Study on Decision Making for Applying Insurance in Car Accident -Using the Conditional Probability on Car Accident-

The number of car accident is Recently on the increase in Korea because of the explosive increase of cars, the poor road condition, the lack of safety facility, and others. The insurant with a accident has to decide whether receiving a insurance or not. In this paper, we represent a reasonable decision support material by calculating the approximate insurance fee based on the discount rate and premium additive rate, which is changed by the accident type and the accident expenditure. Practically, there is difference in the standard insurance rate and premium additive rate according to the accident type and the accident expenditure in Korea. The premium additive rate is assessed considering the number of accident, the pattern of accident, and the reason of accident for 3 years. In this paper, we represent a decision making method considering not only the first-time car accident but also the future car accident. For considering the repeated accident, we analyzed the real data accumulated until the year of 1996 from S Insurance Company, and estimated the probability density function between the first and the second-time accident, and executed the goodness of fit test using ARENA and STATISTICA software. Using this conditional PDF, we can calculate the insurance fee next 3 years and compare the insurance fee with the equivalent present value of cash flows. The program performing this analysis is represented, and written in VISUAL BASIC Language. We tried to suggest an accurate guideline for the insurant to decide the insurance coverage rationally, and tried to correct a wrong idea of dependence on the car insurance only by the amount of the accident expenditure. And we expect this study can generally be applied to many different accident types under the uncertain circumstances in our daily life.