도로에 대한 투자가 제조업 물류비에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구 -SP 기법 활용-

The Effect of Road Investment on Logistics Cost in Manufacturing Industry -Investigation of the Investment Effects Using Stated Preference-

  • 발행 : 1999.03.01

초록

'90년대 들어 미국을 중심으로 Double Counting 문제와 Keynesian/Neo-classical economics theory 까지 연계되어 교통투자가 경제성장에 거의 영향을 주지 않는다는 이론과 영향을 많이 준다는 상충되는 연구결과가 계속 발표되었다. 본 논문은 교통에 대한 투자가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 계량적으로 분석한 것이다. 범위를 좁혀 도로에 대한 투자가 생산성 즉 제조업체의 물류비에 미치는 영향을 Stated Preference Technique를 이용하여 분석한 것이다. 도로이용 승객의 시간가치를 추정하는 일반적인 Cost/Benefit Analysis와는 달리 화물수송과 관련된 투자효과를 분석하였다. 먼저 도로에 대한 투자가 화물의 수송시간절약과 그에 따른 창고시설, 재고관리등에 미치는 영향을 continuous review system과 periodic review system으로 나누어 이론적으로 고찰하였다. 또한 본 논문에서는 Utility Model에 기초하여 시간가치(value of time)와 화물도착의 정확성 (value of reliability)을 도착지별(depot/consumer)과 상품별로 econometrics 기법을 활용 분석한 후 영국의 COBA와 비교 검토하였다. 종합적으로 도로에 대한 투자가 시간절약, 운행비용절감, 사고비용절감 등 직접적인 효과(direct benefit)외에 depot감소, 운행차량감소, 재고비용절약, 유휴자원의 활용 등(secondary benefits)을 통하여 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 끼치고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

Recently, much literature has surveyed the economic effects of transportation investment, focusing on the relationship between transportation infrastructure investment and economic development. Although the conventional views assume that transportation investment stimulates economic growth, the results of recent studies are not conclusive and in some cases reject the conventional views. The contradictory results are linked with double counting Problem and Keynesian/Neo-classical economics theory. This article investigates the economic effects of road transportation with regard to freight transport using Stated Preference technique. This study examines, in particular, the value of time saving for freight which has been rarely studied in this area. In the first part, the value of time saving, excluding the value for driver and operating cost, is theoretically investigated through the model of continuous review system and periodic review system. At last, the empirical study using the Seated Preference technique shows the value of time saving for freight and the value of reliability, compared with other studies and the value of those in COBA. The result makes us conclude that road investment produces the secondary effects as well as the direct benefit such as time saving for passengers, operating cost saving. and accident cost reduction. The secondary effect includes the contribution to economic development.

키워드

참고문헌

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