A Study on the Effects of Teleservice on Travel Demand

텔레서비스가 교통수요에 미치는 영향

  • 이선하 (건설교통부 관광교통기획단)
  • Published : 1999.12.01

Abstract

This Paper focuses on analyzing the influences of Teleservice on travel behavior and trip demand based on the individual behavior model. The first step is to classify individuals into different Person groups who will follow similar behavior Patterns in terms of travel and communication. And then, the effect of Teleservice on trip demand is estimated using hypothetical scenario. The results on the ability of each person group to adapt themselves to Teleservice show that full-time housekeepers and senior citizens are more likely to be alienated. It is also found that transition probability to Teleservice is high for activities in bank or public office where simple forms of information such as data or text are exchanged. On that basis, it is estimated that in Seoul the savings on trip demand by Teleservice will be 7.6% of total daily trip generations.

이 연구는 텔레서비스가 개인의 통행행태 및 교통수요에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위한 것이다. 먼저 개별행태 모형에 기초한 가구원별 통행통신행태조사를 실시하고, 이 분석결과를 바탕으로 서로 상이한 업무행태를 보이고 있는 9개의 군집이 분류되었다. 다음으로 "가설 시나리오"기법을 이용하여 텔레서비스에 의한 교통수단의 대체 가능성을 추정하였다. 개별 군집 중 "가정주부"와 "노년/무직자"의 경우 향후 텔레서비스의 활용에 어려움 등, 정보화사회에서 소외될 가능성이 높을 것으로 예측되었다. 텔레서비스로의 전이확률을 추정한 결과 은행이나 관공서업무와 같이 교류되는 정보종류가 텍스트나 데이터와 같이 단순한 형태일 경우 높게 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과를 근거로 서울시의 경우 텔레서비스에 의하여 향후 일일 약 7.6%의 통행수요가 대체될 수 있을 것으로 예측되었다.

Keywords

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