Korean Journal of Agricultural Science (농업과학연구)

Institute of Agricultural Science, CNU (충남대학교 농업과학연구소)
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A Study on the Long-Term Forecast of Timber demand in Korea

우리나라 목재수요의 장기예측에 관한 연구

  • Lee, Byeong-Yil (Dept. of Forest Resources, College of Agriculture, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Kim, Se-Bln (Dept. of Forest Resources, College of Agriculture, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Kwon, Yong-Dae (Dept. of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Chungnam National University)
  • 이병일 (충남대학교 농과대학 산림자원학과) ;
  • 김세빈 (충남대학교 농과대학 산림자원학과) ;
  • 권용대 (충남대학교 농과대학 농업경제학과)
  • Published : 1998.06.30
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Abstract

This study not only carried out to grasp about the sununarized characteristics of the relationship between international timber market and production trend of wood products, but also focused on the analysis of korean wood demand and the long-term forecast with econometric analysis. The result of regression analysis for wood demand in Korea is that coniferous roundwood demand(CIWD) is explained by coniferous foreign roundwood price(CWRI), Gross domestic product(GDP), a dummy variable. Non-coniferous roundwood demand(NCIWD)is explained by non-coniferous roundwood price(NCWRI), coniferous roundwood price(CWRI), a dummy variable. As the result of long-term forecast by base case, the total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,107,000m^3$ in the year 2000, $11,781,000m^3$ in 2005, $12,565,000m^3$ in 2010. As the result of scenario 1, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,027,000m^3$ in 2000, $11,435,000m^3$ in 2005, $11,952,000m^3$ in 2010. And as the result by scenario 2, total roundwood demand was forecasted $11,341,000m^3$ in 2000, $12,208,000m^3$ in 2005 $13,257,000m^3$ in 2010.

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