우리 나라 바다목장화 사업의 예비적 경제성 평가

Preliminary Evaluation of a Proposed Marine Ranching Project in Korea

An economic appraisal of a proposed marine ranching project is analysed using capital budgeting model such as net present value(NPV) and internal rate of return( IRR) as well as sensitivity analysis and goal seeking model. Of the factors for economic appraisal, direct benefits are to be determined by estimated harvest, prices and costs incurred by catching fishes, and indirect benefits include the additional economic effect of recreational fishing. And judging the worth of these project options depends upon the choice of discount rate of which 8.5% is recommended here. On the basis of estimated production, prices and costs the project is expected to yield NPV=615 million won and IRR=8.8%, which is quite accepted for an economic feasibility, under the first scenario, and NPV= -127 million won and IRR=7.93%, which is rejected, under the second scenario. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by calculating the switching value and sensitivity indicator in respect of the main project parameters. The results suggest that the project NPV and IRR are especially sensitive to fishes(rock fish and other rock fish) prices and fixed costs. Finally goal seeking analysis is carried out in order to reach a desired level of performance like NPV=0 in respect of the amount of hatchery-reared juverniles, the prices and the discount rate.