감자역병 진전도 예측모형 작성

Modeling for Prediction of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans)

To develop the model for prediction of potato late blight progress, the relationship between severity index of potato late blight transformed by the logit and Gompit transformation function and cumulative severity value (CSV) processing weather data during growing period in Taegwallyeong alpine area, 1975 to 1992 were examined. When logistic model and Gompertz model were compared by determining goodness of fit for progressive degree of late blight using CSV as independent variable, the coefficients of determination were higher as 0.742 in the logistic model than 0.680 in the Gompertz model. Parameters in logistic model were composed of progressive rate and initial value of logistic model. Initial value was calculated in -3.664. The progressive rate of potato late blight was 0.137 in cv. Superior, 0.136 in cv. Irish Cobbler, and 0.070 in cv. Jopung without fungicide sprays. According to in crease of the number of spray times the progressive rate was lowered, was 0.020 in cv. Superior under the conventional program of fungicide sprays, 10 times sprays during cropping season. Equation of progressive rate, b1=0.0088 ACSV-0.033 (R2=0.976), was written by examining the relationship between the parameters of progressive rate of late blight and the average CSV (ACSV) quantifing weather information. By estimating parameters of logistic function, model able to describe the late blight progress of potato, cv. Superior was formulated in Y=4/(1+39.0·exp((0.0088 ACSV-0.033)·CSV).