A Study on Estimations and Long-term Forecasts of SO$_2$ Pollution in Each City ＆ County of Korea

시군별 이산화황(SO$_2$) 오염도의 현황 진단과 장기 예측에 관한 연구

It is more likely that the degree of air quality degradation that we have faced would be much lessen, if integrated management of air pollution control and assessment had been fully enforced by the local administrations, not by the centralized environmental agency in the first place. As the selfgoverning local administrations have been established since 1995, the need for air quality control by the local administration or local agency is getting the ground. However, in practice, air quality control by the local administration rarely put into effect due to lack of basic data which cover the present trends of air quality in each local city or county and are necessary for decision making. The emissions of SO$_2$ in each city and county of Korea in 1993 were calculated in this study, based on energy consumptions and emission factors. The ambient concentrations of SO$_2$ also were estimated by applying modified Miller-Holtzworth model. Observed and estimated concentrations of SO$_2$ showed that about 17.5 percents of cities and counties in the country were more polluted than the target value, 20ppb/year. The emissions and ambient concentrations of SO$_2$ in each city and county in 2000, 2005, and 2010 were also forecasted, assumed business as usual senario. It was shown that, in 2010, the emissions of SO$_2$ will be 2.8 times more than those of 1993 and much of them are from industrial sector. Also shown that 38.3 percents of cities and counties will be more polluted than the target value and most of them are polluted areas in 1993. The methods and results of this study could be used in developing the efficient reduction strategies in each city and county.