실시간 기상자료를 이용한 다지점 강우 예측모형 연구

A Study on Multi-site Rainfall Prediction Model using Real-time Meteorological Data

  • 정재성 (한국수자원공사 댐관리처) ;
  • 이장춘 (이리농공전문대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 박영기 (이리농공전문대학 토목공학과)
  • Jung, Jae-Sung (Dam Mangement Division, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • lee, Jang-Choon (Dept. of Civil Engineering, lri National College of Agriculture and Technolgy) ;
  • Park, Young-Ki (Dept. of Civil Engineering, lri National College of Agriculture and Technolgy)
  • 발행 : 1997.06.01

초록

For the prediction of multi-site rainfall with radar data and ground meteorological data, a rainfall prediction model was proposed, which uses the neural network theory, a kind of artifical Intelligence technique. The Input layer of the prediction model was constructed with current ground meteorological data, their variation, moving vectors of rain- fall field and digital terrain of the measuring site, and the output layer was constructed with the predicted rainfall up to 3 hours. In the application of the prediction model to the Pyungchang river basin, the learning results of neural network prediction model showed more Improved results than the parameter estimation results of an existing physically based model. And the proposed model comparisonally well predicted the time distribution of ralnfall.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. 신경망 이론과 응용 (Ⅰ) 김대수
  2. 연구보고서 레이다를 이용한 단시간 강우 예측 결과의 정성 및 정량적인 평가(Ⅰ) 김익수(등)
  3. 박사학위논문, 인하대학교 신경회로망을 이용한 하천유출량의 수문학적 예측에 관한 연구 김주환
  4. 연구보고서 위성 및 레이더 자료를 이용한 단시간 강수 예보 시스템 개발 연구(Ⅲ) 서애숙(등)
  5. 박사학위논문, 서울대학교 신경망 이론과 Kalman Filt-er 강우예측모형의 비교 연구 오남선
  6. 한국수문학회지 v.22 no.2 호우의 환상 스펙트럼 추정 이재형;이동주;박영기
  7. 박사학위논문, 전북대학교 강수의 물리과정에 입각한 호우예측모형에 관한 연구 전일권
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