Bayes Estimate for the Reliability of Nuclear-Power Plant Emergency Diesel Generator

비상디젤발전기 신뢰도에 대한 베이즈추정

A commercial nuclear power station contains at least two emergency diesel generates(EDG) to control the risk of severe core demage during the station blackout accidents. Therefore the reliability of the EDG's to start and load-run on demend must be maintained at a sufficiently high level. Until now, a simple assessment of start and load-run success rates was used to calculate the EDG's reliability. However, this method has been found to contain many defects. Recently, the work of Martz et al.(1996) proposed the use of the Bayes estimator to find the EDG's reliability. In this paper, we will propose confidence interval for the Bayes estimator, compare the above two methods and, using practical examples, illustrate why the Bayes estimator method is more reasonable in our situation.