대유역의 유량예측 시스템 개발에 관한 연구

Development of Flow Forecasting System in Large Drainage Basin

  • 배덕효 (연세대학교 산업기술연구소)
  • 발행 : 1995.06.01

초록

본 연구는 대유역의 유량예측을 위한 수공학적 모형 시스템을 개발하는데 있다. 이 시스템은 각각의 부분유역에서의 기상학적, 수문학적 입력자료를 바탕으로 하천유량을 예측하는 개념적인 수문학적 강우유출모형과 각부분유역의 예측유량을 입력치로 하여 하도홍수추적을 하는 수리학적 모형으로 구성되어 있다. 실시간 해석시 새로운 관측자료로부터 모형의 상태변량을 최적화 할 수 있는 효율적인 상태변량 추정자가 사용되었다. 실시간 유량예측을 위해서 본 연구에서 개발된 모형을 적용하여 본 결과, 예측가능시간이 짧은 경우 대유역의 실시간 유량예측모형으로서 타당한 것으로 판단된다.

The subject research attempts to develop a hydrologic-hydraulic forecasting system suitable for use in large river basins. A conceptual hydrologic rainfall-runoff model is used to produce streamflow from meteorological and hydrologic input data over each subbasin, while a hydraulic model is used to route the catchment outflows in the stream network. For operational flow prediction, an efficient state estimator has been designed for the real-time updating of model states from newly recorded data. The real-time application of the forecasting system indicates that this model produces reliable short-term predicted results.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. NOAA Tech. Mem. NWS HYDRO-17 National Weather Service River Forecast System: Snow accumulation and ablation model Anderson,E.A.
  2. Proc. of the 5th Northern Research Basins Symposium Inclusion of frozen ground effects in a flood forecasting model Anderson,E.A.;Neuman,P.J.
  3. IIHR Report 360, The University of Iowa Hydrologic modeling for flow forecasting and climate studies in large drainage basins Bae,D.H.;Georgakakos,K.P.
  4. J. of Hydraulic Research v.7 no.2 On the subject of a flood propagation computation method(Muskingum method) Cunge,J.A.
  5. WRR v.26 no.5 A state-space model for hydrologic river routing Georgakakos,A.P.;Georgakakos,K.P.;Baltas,E.A.
  6. WRR v.22 no.13 A generalized stochastic hydrometeorological model for flood and flash-flood forecasting: 1. formulation Georgakakos,K.P.
  7. MIT TR 286, Dept. of Civil Engrg., M.I.T. A precipitation model and its use in real-time river flow forecasting Georgakakos,K.P.;Bras,R.L.
  8. WRR v.18 no.3 Real-time, statistically-linearized, adaptive flood routing Georgakakos,K.P.;Bras,R.L.
  9. The Computer Journal v.7 no.4 A simplex method for function minimization Nelder,J.A.;Mead,R.
  10. NWS HYDRO-31 Catchment modeling and initial parameter estimation for the National Weather Service River Forecast System Peck,E.L.