Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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A Study on Development of Forecasting Model for Traffic Accident in Chung-Chong Region

충청권의 교통사고 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구

  • Published : 1995.02.01
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Abstract

This paper deals with the forecasting model for traffic accident. Its objective is to develop the appropriate model to project the accident of Chung-Chong Region. Two types of models between motorization (M) and personal hazard (P) are tested : One is inverted-U (bell type) curve and the other is increasing (or decreasing) curve. The statiscal and sensitivity analyses show that exponential model (type III) and multiplicative model (type II) are well fit to the given cross-sectional and time-series accident data. The model projects that the fatality per 100, 000 persons of Chung-Chong region, when the motorization level (M) is 0.2, would be in the range between 18 and 77 persons. The paper concludes that the accident level is the function of motorization and the result of implementing the safety policy of a region.

Keywords

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