네이만-피어슨 정리와 베이즈 규칙을 이용한 기업도산의 가능성 예측

Application of Neyman-Pearson Theorem and Bayes' Rule to Bankruptcy Prediction

  • 장경 (단국대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 권영식 (동국대학교 산업공학과)
  • Chang, Kyung (Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Dankook University) ;
  • Kwon, Youngsig (Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Dongguk University)
  • 발행 : 1994.09.01

초록

Financial variables have been used in bankruptcy prediction. Despite of possible errors in prediction, most existing approaches do not consider the causal time sequence of prediction activity and bankruptcy phenomena. This paper proposes a prediction method using Neyman-Pearson Theorem and Bayes' rule. The proposed method uses posterior probability concept and determines a prediction policy with appropriate error rate.

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