Neural Network and Its Application to Rainfall-Runoff Forecasting

It is a major objective for the management and operation of water resources system to forecast streamflows. The applicability of artificial neural network model to hydrologic system is analyzed and the performance is compared by statistical method with observed. Multi-layered perception was used to model rainfall-runoff process at Pyung Chang River Basin in Korea. The neural network model has the function of learning the process which can be trained with the error backpropagation (EBP) algorithm in two phases; (1) learning phase permits to find the best parameters(weight matrix) between input and output. (2) adaptive phase use the EBP algorithm in order to learn from the provided data. The generalization results have been obtained on forecasting the daily and hourly streamflows by assuming them with the structure of ARMA model. The results show validities in applying to hydrologic forecasting system.