시뮬레이션과 네트워크 축소기법을 이용한 네트워크 신뢰도 추정

Since. as is well known, direct computation of the reliability for a large-scaled and complex net work generally requires exponential time, a variety of alternative methods to estimate the network reliability using simulation have been proposed. Monte Carlo sampling is the major approach to estimate the network reliability using simulation. In the paper, a dynamic Monte Carlo sampling method, called conditional minimal cut set (CMCS) algorithm, is suggested. The CMCS algorithm simulates a minimal cut set composed of arcs originated from the (conditional) source node until s-t connectedness is confirmed, then reduces the network on the basis of the states of simulated arcs. We develop the importance sampling estimator and the total hazard estimator and compare the performance of these simulation estimators. It is found that the CMCS algorithm is useful in reducing variance of network reliability estimator.