A Theory on the Scope of Financial Activity

금융(金融)의 전업(專業) 및 겸업화(兼業化) 이론(理論): 금융산업조직론(金融産業組織論)의 모색(摸索)

This paper is intended as an introductory essay to explain endogenous changes in the scope of firm activities in the competitive structure of a deregulated, multi-product financial industry. Recently, the global financial industry has been experiencing a widespread reshuffling in its activities, reflecting both consolidation and specialization. The spread of the universal banking system, which involves the integration of various kinds of financial activities, has resulted in the so-called financial supermarket. At the same time, the traditional set of banking activities has been unbundled into so-called financial boutiques. A relevant question is where the current reshuffling process of integration and disintegration in financial activities might lead the financial industry. However, presently popular theories of the financial industry are not really appropriate for the analysis of this issue. This paper attempts to integrate the theory of specialization [George J. Stigler, "The Division of Labor is Limited by the Extent of the Market," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. LIX, No.3, June 1951] and the theory of the multi-product firm [William J. Baumol, John C. Panzar, and Robert D. Willig, Contestable Markets and the Theory of Industry Structure, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc., New York, 1982] and to apply the resulting hybrid theory, a theory on the scope of financial activity, to the financial industry. The implications of this theory for the issues raised above are formalized under five hypotheses on the reshuffling of financial activities as listed below: Hypothesis I: The differences in the organization of financial industries among countries are determined by differences in the size of the financial markets, other things being equal. Hypothesis II: A financial firm will separate those financial activities simultaneously having relatively strong economies of scale and relatively weak economies of scope (alternatively, diseconomies of scope) from other activities. Conversely, the firm will integrate those activities simultaneously having relatively weak economies of scale (alternatively, diseconomies of scale) and relatively strong economies of scope with incumbent activities. Hypothesis III: A competitive equilibrium in the deregulated financial industry will consist of both specialized and multi-product financial firms, resulting in a mixed form of specialized and universal banking systems. Hypothesis IV: As world financial markets fully integrate and all countries consequently face this single, common world market, the financial structures of individual countries will become increasingly similar. Hypothesis V: A more universal banking system will dominate the deregulated financial industry in countries with relatively small financial markets, while a more specialized banking system will dominate in countries with relatively large financial markets. However, equilibrium will ultimately be mixed, with specialized and universal banks coexisting, as stated in Hypothesis III. Based on these hypotheses, this paper interprets the historical development of specialized vs. universal banking systems in major industrial countries as a process driven by the evolution of the financial market in each country - i.e. the change in the size of the financial market over time. In addition, this paper anticipates that the final equilibrium of the world financial industry, which is currently under the pressure of financial innovations and deregulation, will be a mixed equilibrium with both specialized boutiques and universal supermarket-type financial firms, instead of an exclusively specialized or universal banking system. Future research should seek continued theoretical elaboration and empirical verification of this paper's hypotheses.

최근의 세계금융산업(世界金融産業)은 이종금융업무간(異種金融業務間)의 통합(統合)(겸업(兼業))과 동시에 이와는 반대로 개별업무(個別業務)의 분할현상(分割現象)을 동시에 같이 경험하고 있는데, 본고(本稿)는 이러한 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 내생적(內生的) 재편현상(再編現象)을 체계적으로 설명할 수 있는 금융산업조직이론(金融産業組織理論)을 모색하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 기존의 전문화(專門化)와 겸업화이론(兼業化理論)을 통합한 잠정적 분석체계는 대체로 다음과 같은 시사점을 주고 있다. 첫째로, 독자적으로는 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)가 강하고 여타 업무와는 범위(範圍)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있거나 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)가 약한 업무는 기존 업무세트에서 분할(分割) 전문화(專門化)될 것이다. 둘째로, 여타업무와는 범위(範圍)의 경제(經濟)가 강하면서, 독자적으로는 규모(規模)의 비경제하(非經濟下)에 있거나 혹은 규모(規模)의 경제(經濟)가 약한 업무는 겸업(兼業)될 것이다. 셋째로, 자유금융하(自由金融下)의 경쟁금융산업균형(競爭金融産業均衡)은 겸업기업(兼業企業)과 전업기업(專業企業)이 공존하는 혼합균형(混合均衡)이 될 것이다. 넷째로, 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 국가별 차이는 금융시장(金融市場) 및 수요규모(需要規模)의 차이에 의해 결정되며, 최근 진행되고 있는 금융(金融)의 세계화(世界化) 국제화(國際化)는 각국이 직면하게 될 금융시장(金融市場)의 규모를 균등화시킴으로써 장기적으로 각국 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)의 동질화(同質化)를 촉진시킬 것이다. 다섯째로, 금융제도(金融制度)에 대한 인위적 규제가 없다면 겸업주의(兼業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)는 금융시장(金融市場)의 규모(規模)가 상대적으로 작은 경제에서, 전업주의(專業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)는 금융시장의 규모가 상대적으로 큰 경제에서 주로 관찰되게 될 것이다. 본고(本稿)는 이러한 시사점들을 응용하여 주요국에 있어서의 전업주의(專業主義)와 겸업주의(兼業主義) 은행제도(銀行制度)의 역사적 변천과정을 각국 금융시장규모(金融市場規模)의 변천과정에 의해 설명하고, 현재 구조변화(構造變化)를 경험하고 있는 세계각국(世界各國) 금융산업조직(金融産業組織)은 장기적으로 구조가 동질화(同質化)되면서 혼합균형상태(混合均衡狀態)로 이행해 나갈 것으로 전망하고 있다.