경쟁 환경하에서의 내구재의 판매예측에 관한 연구 : 소비자의 반응 및 제품대체에 의한 영향

Sales Forecasting of Competing Durable Products : The Impact of Market Response and Replacement Demand

  • 발행 : 1991.06.01

초록

The importance of marketing mix variables, replacement demand, and competition in a new product growth model has been cited by many researchers. In this paper, these factors are integrated with an aim to model company sales of competing durables. Based on the most popular new product growth model, numerous extensions and incorporations of contributions from related research fields are tried. Model parameters are estimated by the Kalman filter. And, the proposed model is applied to the sales of four consumer durable goods. Empirical applications show the benefits, as well as the limitations of the proposed model.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Management Science v.15 no.1 A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables Bass,F.M.
  2. Journal of marketing v.45 no.Fall Modeling the Product Life Cycle for Consumer Durables Harrell,S.G.;Taylor,E.D.
  3. Management Science v.32 no.3 Analysis and Generalizations of a Multiple Exponential Smoothing Model Harvey,A.C.
  4. Management Science v.28 no.5 Dyanmic Analysis of Consumer Response to Marketing Strategies Hauser,J.R.;Wisniewski,K.J.
  5. Marketing Science v.2 no.1 Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products Horsky,D.;Simon,L.S
  6. Journal of Marketing Research v.17 no.August Adding Explanatory Variables to a Consumer Purchase Behavior Model : An Exploratory Study Jones,J.M;Zufryden,F.S.
  7. Transactions ASME Jounal of Basic Engineering(D) v.82 no.March A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems Kalman,R.E.
  8. Journla of Forecasting v.6 no.1 Long-Term Forecasting with Innovation Diffusion Models : The Impact of Replacement Purchases Kamakura,W.A.;Balasubramanian,S.K.
  9. Management Science v.32 no.12 The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts Lawrence,M.J.;Edmundson,R.H.;O'connor,M.J.
  10. Management Science v.20 no.7 A Modified Linear Learning Model of Buyer Behavior Lilien,G.L.
  11. Management Science v.27 no.5 Bayesian Estimation and Control of Detailing Effort in a Repeat Purchase Diffusion Environment Lilien,G.L.;Rao,A.G.;Kalish,S.
  12. Operations Research v.27 no.4 Aggregate Advertising Models: The State of the Art Little,J.D.C.
  13. Journal of Marketing v.43 no.Fall Innovation Diffusion and New Product Growth Models in Marketing Mahajan,V.;Muller,E.
  14. Journal of Marketing v.54 no.January New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research Mahajan,V.;Muller,E.;Bass,F.M.
  15. Management Science v.24 no.15 Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adopter Population Mahajan,V.;Peterson,R.A.
  16. Technological Forecasting and Social Change v.27 A Product Diffusion Model Incorporating Repeat Purchases Olson,J.;Choi,S.
  17. Journal of Marketing v.27 no.Winter Information Response Models: An Integrated Approach Smith,R.E.;Swinyard,W.R.
  18. Journal of Marketing Research v.27 no.February A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models Sultan,F.;Farley,J.U.;Lehmann,D.R.