에너지 제약을 갖는 발전기를 고려한 경우의 Mixture of Cumulants Approximation법에 의한 발전시뮬레이션에 관한 연구

The Probabilistic Production Simulation with Energy Limited Units Using the Mixture of Cumulants Approximation

This paper describes a newly developed method of production simulation by using the Mixture of Cumulant Approximation (MOCA). In this method, the load is modelled as random variable (r.v.) which can be interpreted in terms of partitioning the load into various categories. We can consider the load shape of multi-modal characteristics. The number of load category and demarcation points of each load category are calculated automatically by using interpolation and least square method. Each generating unit of a supply system is modelled as r.v. of unit outage capacity according to the number of unit outage subset. Since the computation burden of each subset's moments increases exponentially as units are convolved to the system, we further derive the specific recursive formulae. In simulating the energy limited units, hydro unit simulation is performed using Energy Invariance Property and the simulation of pumped storage unit is modelled as compulsory and economic operations. The proposed MOCA method is applide to the test systems and the results are compared with those of cumulant and Booth Baleriaux method. It is verified that the MOCA method is considerably reliable and stable both pathological and well behaved system.