A New Probabilistic Generation Simulation Considering Hydro, Pumped-Storage Plants and Multi-Model

수력,양수 및 다중모델을 고려한 새로운 확률론적 발전시뮬레이션

The probabilistic generation simulation plays a key role in power system expansion and operational planning especially for the calculation of expected energy, loss of load probaility and unserved energy expected. However, it is crucial to develop a probabilistic generation simulation algorithm which gives sufficiently precise results within a reasonable computation time. In a previous paper, we have proposed an efficent method using Fast Hartley Transform in convolution process for considering the thermal and nuclear units. In this paper, a method considering the scheduling of pumped-storage plants and hydro plants with energy constraint is proposed. The method also adopts FHT techniques. We improve the model to include multi-state and multi-block generation. The method has been applied for a real size model system.