Sources of Long-term Industrial Growth and Structural Change in Korea, 1955-85

장기적(長期的) 산업성장(産業成長) 및 구조변화요인(構造變化要因)의 분석(分析) (1955~85)

Korean input-output tables for 1975 and 1985 are first deflated into 1975 constant domestic prices(hypothetical terms), and the constant price I-O data are used to decompose the sources of industrial growth and structural change during the 1975-85 period. Using the same methodology, our results for the 1975-85 period are then linked to the results for the earlier period(1955-75) in order to analyze and evaluate the "demand-side" sources of industrialization over the past three decades. The results from the decomposition of the whole economy indicate that over three decades(1955-85) the relative contribution of domestic demand expansion (DDE) to growth and structural change has continuously declined while the contribution of export expansion(EE) has generally continued to rise. The contribution of import-substitution(IS) which had been significantly higher than that of EE during 1955-63 declined substantially, remaining at an insignificantly low level during the period following 1963. Although it is well known that the government's industrial policy in the 1970s emphasized import-substitution in heavy and chemical industries, no significant changes in the export-oriented growth pattern could be observed even for that period, except for a minor decline in the relative contribution of EE. This may be attributed to the substantially larger, backward-linkage effects of EE than that of IS. The sources-of-growth decompositions for major branches of the manufacturing sector generally support the major conclusions derived from the decomposition for the whole economy. The IS contribution which had been significantly high in almost all manufacturing branches during the 1955-63 period declined to low levels in all but two branches, heavy industry and machinery, during the following period. On the other hand, the relative contribution of EE showed a continuous rise in almost all manufacturing branches(except food processing). Finally, the sources of growth for 1975-85 which were decomposed by detailed sub branches, are analyzed by correlating them with changes in relative prices and industrial protection rates by sub-branches for the same period. A major result is that contrary to general expectations, the EE contributions by sub-branch are not negatively correlated with the nominal rates of protection and/or the effective rates of protection for the same sub-branches. It is also found that no statistically significant, positive correlation exists between IS contributions and nominal protection rates or effective protection rates. These unexpected results may be explained by the peculiar nature of the Korean system of industrial incentives for the past period.

60년대 전반 이후의 수출주도형(輸出主導型) 공업화(工業化)을 통한 고도성장(高度成長)은 국내산업(國內産業) 또는 업종간(業種間) 성장율(成長率)의 차이로 인해서 상당한 산업구조변화(産業構造變化)를 수반했다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 산업연관표체계(産業聯關表體系)를 사용하여 우리나라의 장기적(長期的)인 산업성장(産業成長) 및 구조변화(構造變化)의 요인(要因)을 분석해 보고자 한다. 즉 과거(過去)의 장기적(長期的)인 성장과정(成長過程)에서 국내수요(國內需要), 수출(輸出), 수입대체(輸入代替)와 기술변화(技術變化)는 산업별 생산성장(生産成長)에 각각 얼마만큼 기여(寄與)했나 하는 것을 측정해 보고자 한다. 이러한 측정은 총량적(總量的) 경제수준(經濟水準)뿐만 아니라 세부산업별(細部産業別)로도 이루어질 수 있기 때문에 한국경제(韓國經濟) 전반(全般) 및 공업부문(工業部門)의 세부적(細部的) 변화과정(變化過程)에 관한 풍부한 분석자료(分析資料)를 제공할 것으로 기대한다.