지형을 고려한 단기 대기확산모형의 평가에 관한 연구

A Study on the Evaluation of the Short-term Atmospheric Dispersion Models with Terrain Adjustment

The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of Short-term atmospheric dispersion models --- ISCST, MPTER, VALLEY --- with terrain adjustment. The models are evaluated through correlation analysis, paired analysis and log-normal culmulative analysis between the measured and predicted concentrations in Samcheonpo area. The correlation coefficients between the measured and predicted concentrations turn out to be higher with terrain adjustment than those without terrain adjustment. In paired analysis, the mean differences and average absolute gross errors of concentrations do not change significantly with terrain adjustment. But the variances of the residuals become much smaller when the terrain is adjusted. Through the log-normal cumulative analysis, it is found that the terrain adjustment improve the prediction performance of MPTER and VALLEY, but do not affect significantly that of ISCST. Overall, it is concluded that the performance of short term atmospheric dispersion models improve when the terrain is considered in computation, especially in MPTER and VALLEY.